Tag Archives: Rates

Commentary

5 Reasons Why NOW is the Time to Buy a Home

Many potential buyers are still waiting in the wings, not sure that now is the time to buy a house.  They are often afraid of buying before the market has fully recovered, and are concerned that they may lose out if they jump in too early.  Here are 5 reasons they should buy NOW and not wait…

1) Mortgage Interest Rates are on the Rise
While no one has a crystal ball, all of the technical, fundamental, and economic indicators point to mortgage rates moving up in 2013.  All likelihood is that we have seen the best rates already, and waiting is not going to bring them back.

2) Rents are Continuing to Skyrocket
Recently, Zillow reported that rents increased in the U.S. by 4.2% over the last year.  When compared side-by-side, the costs of owning vs. renting a home easily show the benefits of home ownership.

3) Prices are on the Rise
Home prices in most markets are stabilized, and even starting to increase.  This will be hampered slightly with the over cautious approach of appraisers and lenders, but the trend is still showing prices beginning to rise.

4) Mortgage Guidelines Will Continue to Tighten
With government intervention added to an already overzealous underwriting standard, we are poised to see it become even more difficult for the average buyer to qualify for a home loan.

5) FHA Loans To Become Much More Expensive
Starting with FHA Case Numbers pulled on or after June 3rd, 2013, FHA will dramatically raise the costs of FHA Mortgage Insurance, making these loans much more expensive for the consumer.

Commentary

Wild ride for interest rates

Last Week’s Mortage Rates Recap
Last week displayed the volatility we warned about, and ended on a terrible day.  The market losses we saw occur on Friday marked a new point in technical indicators for mortgage rates, and saw mortgage rates reprice for the worse on Friday for about .125% higher.  We were able to warn most of our consumers early on, as we monitor the market in real time and can act quickly when the trend starts.

Commentary, Mortgage Rates

Weekly Market Update

The bond market opened a little better early this morning with slightly weaker stock indexes. The 10 yr note at 1.91% and MBS prices +4/32 (.12 bp) at 8:30. March personal income at 8:30 up 0.4% a little better than forecasts, personal spending though at +0.3% a little softer than thought. On the report treasuries and mortgages didn’t show any reaction. US stock indexes early this morning trading lower, following the markets in Europe.

The DJIA opened -10, NASDAQ -7, S&P -2; the 10 yr note +4/32 1.92% -1 bp and mortgage prices 3/32 (.09 bp) frm Friday’s close.

At 9:45 the April Chicago purchasing mgrs. index, expected at 60.0 frm 62.2 in March; it fell to 56.2. The three components; new orders 57.4 frm 63.3, prices pd at 68.6 frm 70.1 and employment at 58.7 frm 56.3. Overall a weaker report adding to concerns of slowing economy. The weakness is primarily due to inventory levels declining but respondents to the survey also were saying they were looking for a strong summer. The DJIA slipped a little on the report but mortgage prices and the 10 yr note didn’t show much initial reaction.

Treasuries going for their biggest monthly gain since September as slowing U.S. economic growth and concern Europe’s debt crisis is worsening, increased demand for the relative safety of US treasuries. Ten-year notes are slightly higher for a third day with Spain going into its second recession since 2009 and economists said U.S. reports this week will show growth in manufacturing and services slowed. Not only Spain, the UK is in a double-dip recession since the 1970s as its longest peacetime slump for a century persists; UK GDP declined in the last two quarters. The increasingly serious question for Europe is whether the massive austerity cuts demanded have failed to gain support and are for a number of countries unachievable, leading to further deterioration of economies and dragging other global economies down with it. In the US economists predict Labor Department data this week will indicate U.S. hiring increased in April, though not enough to reduce the jobless rate. Consumer spending climbed in March, but a little weaker than estimates. The concern we have for the 10 yr is that it still has not shown the ability to hold under 1.90% on rallies going back to October.

This week may point to a slowdown in manufacturing, services and construction. A gauge of factory activity (ISM manufacturing) will fall to 53.0 from 53.4 in March, according to the median forecasts. An index of services (ISM services sector), the largest part of the economy, will decline to 54.1 from 56.0, while a construction measure will also fall, economists said in separate surveys. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. We won’t put much confidence on the estimates that recently have been more dart tossing than accurate assessments. This week is more about employment than any other report; however the data this weeks has a number of key points.

The 10 yr note is approaching 1.90%, since last October the 10 yr has fallen below it on three occasions but in each case the note was unable to hold under it. Not sure what will occur now but history does have an impact; a sustained decline under 1.90% would embolden traders to push rates lower, the next technical resistance under 1.90% at 1.80%.